Selling Africa Part Deux

And we're back. A bunch has happened since I last left you, including Mexico (who I'm picking to not make it out of the first round) beating Italy. I still stand by the call. Lets dive right in...

Group E

The Blogfather's favourite team when NZ aren't playing are the Mercurial Dutch. With talent aplenty they are perennial dark horses, which perhaps says more about their lack of big stage success than their ability. They should cruise here with a relatively easy group. One would expect Robin Van Persie to feature in the Golden Boot discussion if they can push on to the latter stages. Unfortunately the Blogfather's favourite non-kiwi Arjen Robben is injured and unlikely to feature in the group stages. Luckily for the Dutch they have weapons up front with the amended big 4 of Van Persie, Kuyt, Sneijder and Van der Vaart. That leaves us with one spot between 3. Cameroon are the highest ranked by Fifa at 19, while Denmark and Japan are 36 and 45th respectively. I'll go with Cameroon here with Japan and Denmark failing to produce in the games they will target.

To advance: Netherlands, Cameroon

Group F

The group most dear to my heart. I must admit to being a giant All Whites homer as a disclaimer before I make these picks and wish all power to Nelsen and Co. I hope you prove me right/more wrong!!! The Italians must have breathed a sigh of relief when they drew this pool and may even get the chance to experiment or rest some of their players if they fare as expected and win all 3. The Italians may have seen some of their players move on since the last World Cup but you have to like the strength up the middle of their defence with two of the all-time greats Buffon and Cannavaro. They may be in the twilight of their careers but with Blogfather favourite Andrea Pirlo (check the pinpoint free kicks) they are still a force to reckoned with. I'm picking Paraguay to lose first up but then take care of Slovakia and NZ. I am also liking the chance of New Zealand playing enough strong defence that they get lucky on the counter attack and feed the height of Rory Fallon, snatching a 1-1 draw with Slovakia. It should not be underestimated how huge a result like this would be.

To advance: Italy, Paraguay

Group G

Every World Cup we have what seems to be the group of death. Rarely do the results ever get as close as predicted but it looks as if G is the group this time around. Brazil will qualify though it wont be a cake walk. They could conceivably drop or tie one of their games and I think that the team that does that (Portugal or Ivory Coast) will advance. Games are tense at the World Cup and always a lot tighter than expected. Portugal having reached the semis last time around and having been 2nd and out at the quarters at the last two European Championships are tried and tested. Did I also mention they have the best player in the world not named Lionel? I think they will be a class above the Ivory Coast who unfortunately are thin on big international match experience. While the African Nations Cup is growing in stature it is still nowhere near the quality of the Euros. They are being hailed as Africa's best hope but sans Drogba and in this pool they are doomed to repeat '06 with a first round exit. The less said about the North Koreans the better. Lets just say there's more chance of them erecting a statue of Obama than gaining a point.

To advance: Brazil, Portugal

Group H

Spain are the favourites to win it all and looking at their team it is easy to see why. They have strength across the board with Casillas in goal, Puyol and Ramos at the back, Torres/Villa up front and a midfield so full that Premier League hero Cesc Fabregas may not start. They are primed for a deep run and this group wont stop them. As you may have noticed there is a heavy run on South American teams coming out of the Blogfather and this group is no exception. The Chileans beat Argentina and Paraguay in qualifying and should advance if top goal scorer Humberto Suazo is fit. The Swiss are ranked 24th 6 spots behind Chile and must fancy their chances of advancing especially if Suazo is unable to play. Like with most of the other groups the games between the 3 hopefuls will be more important than the expected losses to Spain.

To advance: Spain, Chile

In summary, I'm bullish on South America and bearish on the African teams. I've picked Nigeria and Cameroon to advance but not the more highly touted Ivory Coast or Ghana. Part of the reason for the run on these teams is the home field advantage they are said to enjoy. The Blogfather has never been to Africa but he expects the big cities where the teams will play more closely resemble Amsterdam or London than Accra or Yamoussoukro. Africa is a big place. Stayed tuned for 2nd round commentary when the draw is set. In the mean time feel free to make some money on the Blogfather:


Value(<$2.00) $1.75 Germany to win Group D

Gamble($2-5) $2.85 South Africa to beat Mexico

Longshot(>$5) $13 Robin Van Persie Golden Boot

Selling Africa

South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, Ghana, Cameroon and the Ivory Coast will make up the largest African contingent at a World Cup ever and on "home" field many are picking a large contingent to get through to at least the second round. Here's why it's not going to happen, along with my picks for the group stage of the World Cup Finals.


Group A

I'll start with the African team favoured 2nd least to progress but who i think will most likely exceed expectations. Paying $2.75 to make the second round and in a group with Uruguay, Mexico and France one would expect South Africa to fall by the wayside, but never underestimate the power of home field. While not quite the Russian military at home, 91,700 screaming Africans will be sure to give Bafana Bafana a lift against a Mexican team much more talented but likely to be uncomfortable playing against a unpredictable and fired up home team. The Blogfather will go out on a limb and predict a South African victory first up, but then back to earth versus France and a dark horse in Uruguay.

To advance: France and Uruguay


Best Home Advantages:


LA Lakers 28-3 over last 31 home playoff games.

Green Bay Packers Unbeaten in a playoff game at home between the opening of Lambeau in '57 and the arrival of the SPCA's most valuable player.

MCG Boxing Day test: Since 1990 an 83% win percentage when a result occurs.

Carisbrook All Blacks: 85% win percentage lifetime.


Russia: Europe 0, Russia 2. Napoleon and Hitler know what I'm talking about.


Group B








Argentina should romp here and even a previously untested, confirmed cheater/cocaine addict/messiah could not stuff things up this early on. Who will join them is the big question, with Nigeria the most likely paying $1.90 but facing teams in Greece and South Korea who have both caused upsets at recent major tournaments. This 2nd spot could go anywhere but the physicality of Nigeria should prevail against an organised Korean unit and a Greek team who will be about as successful as their financial markets.

To Advance: Argentina, Nigeria

Group C

Bit of a yawner in this one as well with England sure to march through to the second round and a United States team set to join them. The US had never really shown much life on the major tournament stage but a Confederations Cup runners up postion in South Africa last year has them primed to make a run at least to the second round. Algeria are the least favoured of the Africans and should be taken care of by the other three, with the Slovenia vs USA game lining up as crucial.

To advance: England, USA



Group D


Germany, Australia, Ghana and Serbia combine for quite the group here. Germany as usual will be efficent, but missing Ballack will have to rely on Bastian Schweinstager, a focal point of Bayern Munich's double run, along with the Polish born strike pairing of Podolski and Klose (golden boot last time). I'm picking Germany to win 2 but draw or lose 1 and the team they slip to will be the one to advance. Ghana are rightfully the favourites of the rest and Australia will face an uphill battle without the talismanic Mark Viduka. Serbia are quality and while a slip up against New Zealand can't be read into too much, they perhaps lack the attacking firepower to advance. I'm picking Australia's tenacious attitude to overcome Ghana's more skillful but inconsistent unit, with Tim Cahill improving upon his already impressive world cup resume.


To advance: Germany, Australia


2nd half to come....